The 2012 climate negotiations under the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol did not quite die in the desert sands of Doha. But they hardly took the big steps forward that are urgently needed. This kind of reflection, of incremental progress in political terms, but falling far short of what is needed, has now been the my sense for several years running. Also similar to past meetings, COP18 and CMP8 ran over time, as did Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban. The heart… Read moreDoha: Vague words & fuzzy numbers
Australia made one of the few major moves in Doha – well, if you consider 5% or 0.5% “major”. Numbers aside, joining the EU with a commitment (QELRO in climate-speak) for the next period was a welcome move. That the reduction is 0.5% below 1990 levels, is what raised some queries nonetheless (for a funny take on -0.5%, watch this video by climate activists).. And that it is with existing land use rules and carrying over units. The -0.5% is… Read moreAustralia’s -0.5% commitment
In Durban in 2011 NAMAs were very fashionable amongst side-event organisers; this year Equity is making a strong showing in a bid to be “the new black”. So it was without too much surprise that on Wednesday I found myself at a Christian Aid side event entitled, “Closing the Equity Gap – Is Equity an enabler or barrier to increasing ambition?”. The side event’s panelist included the ERC’s Prof Harald Winkler. The intent was to provide a forum to discuss… Read moreEquity the “new black”
Sebataolo Rehlao, Britta Rennkamp, Holle Wlokas, Kim Coetzee and Anthony Dane are attending the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC between the 26th November and the 6th of December. Watch this space as they will be blogging from the Conference. In addition to being civil society observers of this multilateral negotiation process, they are involved in running two official side-events at which they will publicise different aspects of their research. See the related blog posts for more details.
SIDE EVENT: Thursday 29 Nov 2012, 11:30—13:00, Side Event Room 7, QATAR NCC, Doha Co-hosted by the Energy and Resource Institute (TERI) and the University of Cape Town (UCT) Most of the world’s poor live in middle-income countries, which need to mitigate emissions, too, and not only adapt to the consequences of climate change. Climate action and poverty reduction continue as a trade-off. However, it is widely accepted that reducing poverty and addressing climate change (both mitigation as well as… Read morePoverty, Climate Change and Knowledge Institutions
Recent Conferences of Parties (COP) have resulted in a discussion and/or a decision on at least one sector/theme agreed by majority of the Parties. Typical examples include the establishment of the Adaptation Fund (also to be used for capacity building through technology transfer) at COP7 in 2003, the adoption of Nairobi Work Plan at COP12 in 2006, and the formal REDD+ mechanism for developing countries to contribute to mitigation actions at COP16 in 2010. At all these meetings, there has… Read moreCan Doha produce a breakthrough on agriculture?
SIDE EVENT: 4TH DECEMBER 20.15-21.45; Side Event Room 8 We are hosting an interview/ chat format of 3 dialogues each in groups of 2 or 3 discussing a different aspect of the MAPS Process with reference to their country. Michael Jacobs (Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics and at the School of Public Policy at University College London) will act as our moderator and will lead three sets of discussions. Dialogue 1: Linking top down and bottom up… Read moreMitigation Actions in the context of national development & Climate Change
Several MAPS researchers at at COP 18 this year. Following them will give you first hand glimpse into the activities at the Conference of the Parties. They are: Harald Winkler – @HarryWinkler Michelle du Toit – @mdutoit74 Kim Coetzee – @kimctzee Other tweeting MAPS Intl researchers who aren’t at COP this year are Marta Torres Gunfaus – @MTorresGunfaus Emily Tyler – @emilyjtyler The main twitter account can be found at @mapsprogramme
Wei et al (2012) use two earth-system models, one in from US national lab NCAR and another – derived from it in part, from Beijing Normal University. First, they run scenarios for historical emissions, and find developing countries contributed 20-40%. Looking at responsibility for historical emissions , they find “ that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming,and sea-ice reduction by 2005.” Secondly, they construct scenarios of future emissions… Read moreResponsibility for past and future emissions