New socio-economic scenarios for climate analysis

We are very pleased to announce that a paper outlining a framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, and mitigation research has just been posted on 

As stated in the paper:
This document presents a conceptual framework for developing new scenarios using a matrix approach. This approach provides the landscape within which a particular scenario can be located based on the state of human societies (SSPs); the degree of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of radiative forcing as e.g. described in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)); the state of the atmosphere and climate (CMIP5 and other projections); and shared climate policy assumptions. The resultant scenarios can be used for individual research projects and for integrated assessments of mitigation, adaptation, and residual climate impacts.

The authors are seeking comments on the proposed framework and approach. A form and instructions for submitting comments are on the website; comments are due by 16 September. Your review comments will be used by the author team to revise and finalize the framework paper before November 2011. We would like the paper widely circulated in the scientific community and urge you to send the paper to others who may be interested.

Note that the paper is posted on the website of an upcoming workshop on socio-economic scenario development to be held in Boulder, Colorado. Details on this workshop, and information on how to express interest in participating, will be forthcoming soon.

We look forward to your comments and suggestions.

Thank you and best regards on behalf of the authors Nigel Arnell, Tom Kram, Timothy Carter, Kristie Ebi, Jae Edmonds, Stephane Hallgatte, Elmar Kriegler, Ritu Mathur, Brian O’Neill, Keywan Riahi, Harald Winkler, Detlef van Vuuren, Timm Zwickel.